Oil: OPEC assesses the effects of the war on world demand

Posted 15 March, 2022

  OPEC is assessing the effects of the war in Ukraine on global oil demand this year, amid “unprecedented” uncertainty.

The cartel has so far maintained its forecast of a 4.2 million barrel per day (mb/d) increase in crude demand this year, which should reach a total of 100.90 mb/d.

“This forecast is however likely to be modified in the coming weeks”, when there will be more “clarity” on the effect of the geopolitical turbulence linked to the war in Ukraine, indicates the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC ) in its annual report.

The cartel, allied in particular to Russia within the framework of an agreement to limit the production of oil in order to support the prices, does not however speak directly of war or of Russian invasion in Ukraine but evokes more alludingly the "war in Eastern Europe", as well as "tensions" or even a "crisis" linked to Ukraine.

The current situation represents "an unprecedented level of uncertainty" and "uncertainty will dominate the remaining months of 2022," OPEC said.

In addition to the geopolitical unrest, strictly speaking, she cites the "restrictions" of production and trade flows - a possible allusion to the sanctions imposed by the United States and the United Kingdom against Russian oil - the effects on inflation and oil demand, or even the potential acceleration of the energy transition in Europe.

OPEC+ brings together the thirteen members of OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, and ten other non-OPEC exporting countries, led by Russia.

The members of OPEC + refuse to increase their production to relieve the market, sticking to the gradual increase of 400,000 barrels per day each month with the objective of returning, at the end of 2022, to volumes similar to those before the pandemic. coronavirus.

The production of the OPEC countries had increased by 440,000 barrels per day in February, according to secondary (indirect) sources cited in the monthly report. This increase was notably driven by Saudi Arabia and Libya 

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