The losses of the global economy due to the coronavirus pandemic in 2020 will range from $ 5.8 trillion to $ 8.8 trillion, or from 6.4 to 9.7% of world GDP, if states do not take the necessary response measures, experts from the Asian Development Bank predict ( ADB). This is reported on his website.
ADB has twice worsened its forecast, which it gave back in April, as the restrictions that continue to operate in many countries negatively affect the economy.
According to the bank's forecast, countries that have experienced an outbreak of the disease and imposed severe restrictions, which led to a sharp drop in domestic demand, will be most affected. Countries with open economies and those whose economies depend on tourism and commodity exports will also be affected by the pandemic.
To reduce potential losses, countries must contain the spread of coronavirus, the bank said. To do this, they must test the required number of people and have enough protective equipment and medical equipment, as well as isolation and social distance. In addition, governments should provide support to families and businesses in need to avoid long-term negative effects on the economy.
If countries respond, they will be able to reduce the potential damage from the COVID-19 pandemic by 40%, reducing losses to the global economy to $ 5.4 trillion, or 5.9% of global GDP, ADB predicts.
According to analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co, the damage to the global economy from the coronavirus pandemic in the next two years will amount to $ 5.5 trillion, Bloomberg reported in early April. "The world is plunging into the deepest peacetime recession since the 1930s, after the pandemic forced governments to close businesses and keep people at home," the experts said.
According to the International Monetary Fund, downturn of the global economy in 2020 will amount to 3%. The recession this year will be recorded in 157 countries out of 194, including Russia, the IMF said. The US economy will fall by 5.9%, the eurozone - by 7.5%, and growth in China will slow to 1.2%. Russia's GDP, as noted by the bank's analysts, will decrease by 5.5% in 2020, and will not fully recover in 2021 (+ 3.5%).