During recessions, the dollar is usually used as a safe haven and appreciates against the euro. This was not the case during the COVID crisis, and Natixis analysts believe that a devaluation of the dollar is now the most likely scenario.
"Monetary policy during the COVID crisis was more expansionary in the United States than in other OECD countries."
"The eurozone now intends to use its excess savings to finance investments in the eurozone."
"The new economic policy that Joe Biden would implement if he were elected President (higher taxation on capital gains, corporate profits and wealth; doubling the state minimum wage to $ 15 an hour, restrictions on oil and gas production) could prevent non-residents from To buy shares.
"If there is an outflow of capital from emerging countries, which was the case at the beginning of the COVID crisis, the dollar will be supported, which can also be seen from its appreciation vis-à-vis the emerging countries. However, since mid-May 2020 these outflows have stopped and the emerging currencies have started again appreciated, which is negative for the dollar against the euro, for example.