Oil price upturn requires driver

Posted 29 October, 2018

Oil prices somewhat recovered last Friday. However, oil, in fact, finished the week in the red – the decline had been recorded for the third week in a row.

Brent oil keeps trying to hit the 78 handles and move further. For now, the price stands at some $77. 67, after softening during the morning trading. 

The global stock markets still face selloffs. Specifically, the price upturn in the oil market was restrained last Friday by the US indexes collapse. At the same time, lower Asian benchmarks that can spread to the European markets put pressure on oil on Monday already.

As reported Baker Hughes, the operating drill rigs rose by another 2 units in the USA. Thus, this increase indicates a possible upturn in the production of shale oil to take place in the next few weeks. The players will keep eyes open with such development of the situation.

Brent prices technically have to break the 78 handles to improve short-term sentiments. Specifically, the longer quotes stand below this line, the higher threat of more aggressive plunge.
Speaking about the near term, a price upturn will probably be restrained by investors' reluctance to risk.

Previous forecast

29 October, 2018 16:51

← Euro still can move downwards

The euro preserves in its attempts to rebound during the Monday trading session. Last Friday, the currency managed to jump from the bottom to some $1.1335. The 1.14 handle is the main battlefront now, as the break of this level may soften sellers' pressure on the euro-to-US dollar rate. S&P agency downgraded its rating outlook for Italy to negative last weekend. However, the rating remained unchanged. At the same time, players mostly feared that the rating would be decreased, and they were happy with such a decision. Meanwhile, in Italy, state bonds rebounded with such background, while the yield dipped.

Euro still can move downwards

Next forecast

26 October, 2018 15:18

Sterling likely to remain weak →

The sterling is plunging vs the US dollar on Friday. For now, the currency has hit the bottom since early-September touching the 1.28-handle. Today, the market sees massive sterling selloffs. First of all, Theresa May's resignation is no longer so pressing one. Still, the no-deal Brexit issue still persists. In particular, the Irish border problem is yet to see the solution, while the UK economy seems to slow down. As a result, the sterling becomes less attractive with the players staying restless. Additional pressure comes for the general global market environment. The sterling is the risk asset and naturally depressed by the risk aversion in the market on the trade war and weaker oil.

Sterling likely to remain weak
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