Oil price now depends on US-China talks progress

Posted 30 January, 2019

The oil market showed more clear price trend yesterday. The quotes managed to post some gains in the second half of Tuesday. According to the available statistics, the Brent prices moved up above $61/bbl. At present, the quotes remain on the rise staying near $61.65/bbl, which means about 2.5% increase d-o-d.

The market players mostly believe that the observed strengthening is related to the restrictions that were launched against Venezuela. Surely, It is quite possible that some influence could come from a steadily offensive position of Washington in terms of the foreign policy. However, some market analysts think that the hikes should be connected with better market stance towards the risk. The Asian markets also recorded uprise with prices moving up at a moderate pace at the today session.

Speaking about the sanctions, they, in fact, will have restrained impact on the global market, as Trump's office followed the Iranian scenario and made some easing for importers of Venezuelan oil. The list of exceptions include some local big oil refineries and European importers.

According to the API data, the crude oil reserves soared by 2 million bbl last week, whereas the forecast was set at 3 million bbl. Petroleum reserves added 2.4 million, though those of distillates decreased by 2 million bbl. The data generally has no strong impact on the market.

In the middle of the week, Brent oil movement may depend on the signals from the US-China talks. This means that the price can either soften or rise. The market is unlikely to pay attention to the data to be released by the Ministry of Energy if it is almost similar to the API's figures, as the insiders are no focused on the results of the US Federal Reserve meeting. 

Previous forecast

31 January, 2019 15:58

← Japanese yen gains grounds in second half of week

The Japanese yen is actively getting stronger vs the US dollar. By now the US dollar to yen exchange rate stands at 108.70. The Japanese economic reports are now not in the spotlight now, though some figures should be mentioned. If the industrial sector is ready to recover, this means there are signs of positive improvements of the domestic demand.

Japanese yen gains grounds in second half of week

Next forecast

28 January, 2019 16:19

Euro-area economic situation in January 2019: analysis →

The European Statistical Office released the data on the EU trade balance and retail sales of last November in January. Unlike the previous three-month period, the balance showed improvements reaching EUR 19 billion over the period under review, while the October figures were at EUR 14 billion. The November retail sales were 0.6% above the anticipated levels. It becomes clear that the EU economy is in a good state now.

Euro-area economic situation in January 2019: analysis
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