Oil price forecast. Brent tries to stay in the 100 area

Posted 02 August, 2022

Brent oil prices went down yesterday, and today there is a question of maintaining the level of 100 dollars per barrel. News that Libya is increasing production to levels of early April (more than 1 million barrels per day), coupled with uncertainty about the future plans of OPEC + and weak statistics on business activity in China, France, and Italy, affected investor appetite.

Today, the OPEC technical committee will be held, and tomorrow there will be a meeting where the future plans of the alliance will be discussed, given that the deal ends this month. There is a risk of increasing production by Saudi Arabia from the reserve capacity. In this case, the support factor in the form of a surplus in demand will gradually come to naught. Weak statistics on business expectations in China and some European countries increased fears of a recession in the global economy, which will inevitably also affect energy demand.

At the moment, the October futures for Brent is trying to stay in the 200-day average zone (98-100 dollars per barrel). But if the mood worsens, we do not rule out attempts to go lower, at least to $95/bbl.

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