Oil generally survives amid political issues

Posted 25 January, 2019

At the Thursday trading, Brent oil did not decline but even inched up getting support from the market fundamentals. The quotes were recorded near $60 per bbl and took roots at around $61 per bbl. However, oil prices have slackened today staying at some $61 handle today.

There are just a few factors that could bolster the bullish pace observed earlier. In fact, market bulls achieved good results in December and early January, while now they need more drivers to achieve new peaks. At present, geopolitical issues, in particular, the threat of US sanctions against Venezuelan oil market. It is quite possible that the US President Donald Trump can tighten the measures by week's end, as the news reports read.

Although the move has potential chances to come true, the US president stated he needs cheap oil. Besides, easing of Iran sanctions definitely confirm his stance towards this issue. At the same time, even if Washington launches restrictions, the measures are likely to be designed in a way to have minimal pressure on the prices.

In general, there are no sources for the support for the oil market right now. According to the released data, oil reserves in the USA keep rising, while the first impact of the OPEC+ deal is yet to be felt. Moreover, some pressure still can come from the stock markets, as a new wave of risk aversion is inevitable. 

Previous forecast

28 January, 2019 16:19

← Euro-area economic situation in January 2019: analysis

The European Statistical Office released the data on the EU trade balance and retail sales of last November in January. Unlike the previous three-month period, the balance showed improvements reaching EUR 19 billion over the period under review, while the October figures were at EUR 14 billion. The November retail sales were 0.6% above the anticipated levels. It becomes clear that the EU economy is in a good state now.

Euro-area economic situation in January 2019: analysis

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23 January, 2019 17:06

Sterling benefits from fading away hard Brexit scenario →

The market is getting more and more confident that the UK may escape a no-deal Brexit scenario. There is a chance that the document will be amended in case of another unsuccessful vote in the Parliament. Speaking about the short term outlook, the British currency can maintain its game face, but the rate will probably depend on the Brexit Plan B vote.

Sterling benefits from fading away hard Brexit scenario
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