15 September, 2015
Yesterday's data on consumer price index in Italy showed no changes and continues to be on a stable low of 0.2% m/m and 0.2% y/y. But the European Industrial Production showed an increase to the level of 0.6% m/m and 1.9% y/y. Such data may contribute to slowing down in the medium term. European data was initially unable to support the euro. This is due to the fact that industrial production shows growth with zero inflation and reduction of producer prices, ie the probability of deflation is real.
Today in France was published the consumer price index, which came with lower forecast of 0.3% m/m and 0.0% y/y against the expected 0.4% m/m and 0.1% y/y. And if you take into account the weakening of industrial production in economics, which ranks second in Europe, it is possible to think about the prospects of further growth in prices, which will help to inflation rate in overall for the currency association. German index of sentiments in business environment by ZEW institute can go down almost by 7 points and demonstrate 18.3. Same thing with index of the current situation - a decline on 1.7 points to 64.0. The output of such data is unlikely to support the single European currency.
Now, the main attention of market participants is focused on the publication of US statistics. Positive data are expected on changing the volume of retail trade (0.6% m/m to 0.4% m/m), as well as changes in retail sales, excluding car sales (0.4% m/m to 0,1% m/m). Also there will be another important indicator output - the data on commercial stocks, in case of growth the industry will be able to continue further downward movement.
As a result, the EURUSD will continue its sideways movement in the range of 1.1200 - 1.1350. Loyal expectations both in Europe and the United States will contribute to this development.