Daily Analysis | EUR/USD | 4 of August

Posted 04 August, 2017


The NFP with Average Hourly Earnings data will be the most important today for the EUR/USD currency. The ADP missed the forecast (178k vs 187k) but it was revised higher - 191k. It implies that the NFP might not be the most important data today, but rather it will be the wage data. However, traders should be paying attention to both as the NFP might come close to 180k due to a lot of seasonal work, for tourism.
Technical analysis is showing a clear narrowing channel with a trend line that might become an inner trend line if broken to the upside. An upside break of 1.1890 should target 1.1905, 1.1932 and 1.1958. However if the price gets below the channel than POC 1.1835-50 (D L4, W H4, EMA89, ATR pivot) and/or POC2 1.1800-1.1810 ( W H3, ATR low, D L5) should provide potential rejections. The pair is still in uptrend so buying the dips could happen should the price retrace to POC zones.
Bulls should keep 1.1795 intact, as if it breaks it might be a signal for a potential reversal down to 1.1700.
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W L3 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Support)
W H3 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Resistance)
W H4 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Strong Weekly Resistance)
M H4 - Monthly Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Monthly Resistance)
M L3 – Monthly Camarilla Pivot (Monthly Support)
M L4 – Monthly H4 Camarilla (Very Strong Monthly Support)
POC - Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)


                                                                                                              By Nenad Kerkez | Admiral Markets


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Previous forecast

08 August, 2017 11:56

← Daily Analysis | GBP/CAD | 8 of August

In the lack of any major driver today, the GBP/CAD is still bullish ,after the retracement from the weekly H4 camarilla pivot. At this point, we can see a bullish SHS (inverted head and shoulders pattern) that cues for an uptrend continuation. 0.6493-0.6506 (bullish shs, trend line, 2 hammers, historical buyers, 61.8, D3) is the POC zone and the price might reject. Above 1.6520 we might see a continuation towards 1.6540, 1.6565 and 1.6602. D L4 -1.6477 should hold for the bullish SHS pattern to succeed. Below 1.6475 we might see the pattern invalidation, leading to 1.6440.

Daily Analysis | GBP/CAD | 8 of August

Next forecast

03 August, 2017 10:50

Daily Analysis | USD/CAD | 3 of August →

The USD/CAD is enjoying the uptrend that I have already provided the analysis for, but now it looks a bit overextended to the upside. This looks like a USD strength more than CAD weakness as ADP numbers had a revision yesterday that provided a boost to dollar. At this point the USD/CAD is getting close to the POC (ATR pivot, D H5, bearish order block) 1.2610-30. The price is above both weekly and daily H5.

Daily Analysis | USD/CAD | 3 of August
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