CBOE large funds getting ready for bitcoin softening - COT

Posted 11 June, 2018

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) released the Commitments of Traders (COT) for the week ending last Tuesday.

Non-commercial traders raised net short position on bitcoin contracts by 250 to 1,930. Large speculators have been lifting net positions for the second week in a row and four weeks out of the past five. Net short positions had peaked since earlyFebruary.

As for nonreportable positions, net long positions on bitcoin contracts rose by 250 to 1,930. Besides, they have been ramping up positions four weeks out of the past five weeks.

Commercial traders that usually sell against the main trend, did not take part in trading.

Open interest dropped 140 to 5,650 contracts. Bearish index of large speculators (short and long positions) rose 140 to 1,710 over the period under review.

Summary: COT reports on bitcoin show stronger bearish sentiments among the large speculators raised net position for bitcoin decline by 15% over the past week. Large speculators reduced BTC buying by 8%. Further trend development can promote cryptocurrency weakening.

Notice: COT data is fundamental and used for mid- and long-term trading. Large speculators or non-commercial (banks, investment funds) usually trade in line with the trend. At the same time, small speculators (nonreportable positions) usually have no strong impact on the market. Net position is the difference between the number of contracts for buy and sale. Open interest means the total number of opened positions in the market.

Small speculators expanded bitcoin buying by 6% and reduced sales by 17%. Their purchases more than 4-fold above sales. However, small speculators usually do not have a strong influence on the market.


Previous forecast

13 June, 2018 13:39

← Sterling dips in midweek

The sterling posted weakening against the US dollar in the midweek. The price stands at some 1.3324. This week was full of economic reports and its start was marked by the April industrial production data in the UK. The report showed a 0.8% decline m-o-m, which spoiled investors taking into account the expected increase of 0.1%.

Sterling dips in midweek

Next forecast

08 June, 2018 16:09

Japan posted weaker GDP first-ever since 2015 →

Japan has released below-expectations Q1 GDP data this week. The year-to-date GDP decreased by 0.6% over the period under review, but the market forecast a 0.4% weakening. For reference, the rate posted a similar 0.6% y-o-y decline in Q4 2017, and the market experts had anticipated slower weakening in Q1, though their expectations failed to come true.

Japan posted weaker GDP first-ever since 2015
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