Daily Technical & Fundamental Analysis

Sterling posts gains on Tuesday
18 December, 2018 15:01

Sterling posts gains on Tuesday

On Tuesday (December 18) the sterling is gradually restoring positions vs the greenback with the exchange rate reaching some $1.2680 now. The positive dynamics of the British currency is related to one and the same issue – Brexit voting in the UK parliament. It has been reported lately that the previous vote scheduled on December 11 was cancelled, while the new date has been slated for January 14. It is interesting what tactics Theresa May may choose this time.

Emerging market currencies positive before Christmas holidays
18 December, 2018 13:43

Emerging market currencies positive before Christmas holidays

The currencies in the emerging markets have been positive at the trading week before the Christmas, though investors do rush to spend money on risk assets seeing a slower economic upturn in the world. At present, it is clear that the locomotive for the currencies of the emerging markets is the US dollar (in particular its weakening). The greenback has slacker positions on upcoming the US Federal Reserve meeting amid the fact that investors are slow to trade and prefer to wait and see, so the currencies in the emerging markets can continue rising. Speaking about Chinese yuan, it showed stable rate against the US dollar – investors are getting ready for the this-week big events in China.

Situation in oil market can provoke interventions
18 December, 2018 11:20

Situation in oil market can provoke interventions

The oil market has not changed much. The market participants keep getting rid of futures seeing more or less viable upturn attempts. The similar situation is said to take place lately – Brent prices hit two-week bottom near $58.60 on Tuesday. For now, the price stands at some $58.57 and keeps sliding. As the market experts stated, oil quotes fail both take roots above the $61-handle and psychological level of $60. Technically, this means that they can drop deeper in the near term.

Oil market players generally sceptical now
14 December, 2018 16:26

Oil market players generally sceptical now

After some price upturn on Thursday coming closer to the 62-handle, oil is again depressed at the Friday trading falling down to the 61-handle. The fluctuations remain restrained staying within this-week range. According to the report of the International Energy Agency (IEA) released lately, oil prices can skyrocket driven by the decreasing investments in oil production. Moreover, the IEA stated in its report that the slacker demand for the oil as automotive fuel which will be recorded beginning the middle of 2020, will be offset by the petrochemical products and other transportation means. Baker Hughes will release US drilling activity report on Friday.

Germany loses status of economic upturn driver in euro-area
14 December, 2018 15:41

Germany loses status of economic upturn driver in euro-area

The European currency has broken the $1.13 handle for the first time over two weeks, touching the bottom near $1.1285 on Friday. It seems that the euro faced some support at this level. The observed euro dynamics can be driven by a number of economic factors. Demand for the risk assets resumed slackening after a 2-week break. At the same time, the US-China trade talks have to take a backseat by now, while the urgent issue is new concerns about global economic slowdown. Being a risk asset, the euro was affected by the market changes, with stronger demand for the greenback as a protective asset only aggravates the current situation.

Upcoming ECB meeting makes euro less attractive
12 December, 2018 14:32

Upcoming ECB meeting makes euro less attractive

After being slack for about two days, the euro has shown some upturn against the US dollar in the middle of the week. However, the euro-to-US dollar pair remains in the red before the release of the US inflation data and the meeting of the European Central Bank, the week milestones. The bearish messages of Mario Draghi may only expand pressure on the euro. For reference, the currency is depressed from many fronts (Italy, UK, France). As a result, the euro start losing its attractiveness in case of more signs of the political crisis spreading in Europe.

Sterling steps out previous range, touching 1.26
11 December, 2018 14:44

Sterling steps out previous range, touching 1.26

Following practically five-week-long slackening, the sterling has managed to break the 1.25 handle (the bottom of April 2017) and moved up to the 1.26 line, which is now believed to be the last frontier on the downward track. Today the currency is said to stabilize slightly standing somewhat above $1.26. However, the Brexit tensions persist, and thus more active buying is unlikely to be seen now, while profit-taking is highly possible.

US dollar moves and Italian budget issue in focus of euro
10 December, 2018 14:59

US dollar moves and Italian budget issue in focus of euro

Following last Friday, the US dollar keeps facing selloffs on Monday. At the end of last week, the situation was entailed by a weak labour market report. For now, the US Dollar index hiked to $96.63. The sterling is unstable in view of the upcoming voting in the UK parliament. However, the currency shows more modest changes unlike the euro, which managed to the November peaks at $1.1440, though then it slightly dipped though remains in the black anyway.

US dollar can get some support from oil
07 December, 2018 15:54

US dollar can get some support from oil

The US dollar is generally uncertain, though the price is fluctuating at the sideline on an upcoming release of the US labour market report. The market expects that the report will dispell recent concerns for the US economy and show the significant strengthening of the employment and salary rates. With this scenario, the greenback will lure demand, though the probable upturn is unlikely to be long-lived. The US dollar can also get some support in its slow upward attempts from the OPEC+ meeting. The markets have fastened their eyes on the OPEC+ talks that are about to finish on Friday.

Uncertainty prevails in oil market on upcoming OPEC+ meeting
06 December, 2018 16:14

Uncertainty prevails in oil market on upcoming OPEC+ meeting

Uncertainties persist in the oil market ahead of the fateful decision of the OPEC+ members regarding a widely discussed reduction of oil production. The market keeps fluctuating in this context, while prices are highly sensitive to different rumours and speculations. Volatility stays strong in the market on Thursday. Following the recent fruitless attempts to take roots above $63-handle, Brent prices plunged to some $60.16 today. It seems that prices are likely to keep sliding further below $60 handle. The rumours that the cartel committee suggested a 1 million bbl reduction as well as agreed on new measures have been rejected, and even before the market has responded to them.

US dollar faces more and more obstacles on upward path
05 December, 2018 16:58

US dollar faces more and more obstacles on upward path

Following the upturn, the US dollar has slowed downs somewhat on Wednesday, and now the trend is unclear, though mostly positive one. There is no notable boost, but the markets show some jitters. This situation can be partly connected with the overestimated results of the Washington-Beijing meeting since the initial state of bliss changed into sceptical mood regarding the success of the achieved agreements during the trade negotiations between the countries. The US dollar can see some support from the Beige Book to be released by the US Federal Reserve in the near term unless the authority shares its concerns about possible economic slowdown.

New US threats against China despite agreed break in conflict
05 December, 2018 14:01

New US threats against China despite agreed break in conflict

US President, Donald Trump is said to threaten Beijing with new import restrictions. The White House backs to its normal political messages, and this even since before the 90-day break period for intensive US-China talks achieved during the G20 summit failed to begin. For reference, it was agreed that the parties take a pause in an interchange of import duties beginning from January 1 2019. Specifically, as the US leader stated in the social network, there will be a real deal or nothing.