Daily Technical & Fundamental Analysis

US-China trade talks again take centre stage in oil market
11 February, 2019 17:35

US-China trade talks again take centre stage in oil market

Following the Friday trading session, the Brent oil prices managed to slightly regain positions. However, the overall figures showed that the last week brought some 1% decline. The quotes saw some support at the $61/bbl handle and improved to $62/bbl. Despite the increase, the oil market has remained shaky and started this week with a price decline. The current price stays near $61.80/bbl. In the short run, the Brent prices will remain based on the stock markets and macroeconomics. The main event for this week – US-China trade talks. The price still can fall below the $60 handle.

Global economic situation prevents oil price from strengthening
08 February, 2019 16:32

Global economic situation prevents oil price from strengthening

The price for oil showed another attempt to rise on Thursday but entailed new profit taking in the market. As a result, the quotes fell down to the $60/bbl handle. However, the prices for Brent oil have managed to restore positions by Friday, hitting the $61/bbl handle. Despite the increase, daily decline remained heavy. Oil quotes that have already shown instability face pressure from the macroeconomic signals. The market environment generally remained the same with prevailing uncertainties and fears. As a result, traders stay on pins and needles taking measures to prevent the price rise. In the near term, it is still possible that oil prices may fall down below $61/bbl again.

BOE decides to leave interest rate unchanged as market expected
07 February, 2019 18:02

BOE decides to leave interest rate unchanged as market expected

After the regular meeting held on Thursday, the Bank of England, in particular, its Monetary Policy Committee, has reportedly decided to leave the interest rate at 0.75%, which in fact agrees with the market players' forecast. The BOE's decision has fueled the decline of the sterling against the US dollar. For now, the UK can record the slowest economic growth over the past 10 years in 2019.

Euro-area economic figures fail to promote euro uptrend
07 February, 2019 17:56

Euro-area economic figures fail to promote euro uptrend

The euro rate keeps on steadily declining since the beginning of this week. The euro to US dollar rate is hovering around a two-week bottom of 1.1355 and may even touch the 1.13 handle. The rate downturn accelerated on Thursday driven by a new European Commission outlook. The European Commission downgraded its GDP growth forecast for the Eurozone from 1.9% to 1.3%. Notably, the regulator revised its forecasts for almost all countries in the region with Germany and France affected the most. The euro downtrend is hardly a surprise for the market, especially amid the strong US dollar rate.

Sterling fluctuates expecting BOE meeting this week
06 February, 2019 16:11

Sterling fluctuates expecting BOE meeting this week

The sterling is volatile in the middle of the week. The British currency has been plunging lately facing pressure from better US dollar demand and low economic figures in the UK. Specifically, the latter indicates slower economic growth which probably related to the longlasting divorce process. The sterling posted gains on Wednesday, though the downward movement is possible especially in light of the upcoming BOE meeting to take place on Thursday

US Federal Reserve soft position – right or wrong move?
05 February, 2019 16:57

US Federal Reserve soft position – right or wrong move?

Last week was marked by a softer position of the US Federal Reserve towards the monetary policy, which actually supported the stock markets. The US Central Bank changed its strategy dramatically this January against the December meeting. For now, the US Federal Reserve officials stick to somewhat softer policy. In fact, the Central Bank is no longer states about the possible two-fold increase this year. Still, the changes can be made at any time. At the same time, the US Federal Reserve will have no other choice but to resume monetary tightening if the economic situation in the country remains strong.

Euro shies away from slackening euro-area figures
04 February, 2019 18:14

Euro shies away from slackening euro-area figures

The euro has posted some weakening at the start of the week. According to the daily statistics, the euro-to-US dollar exchange rate stands below $1.1450 at some $1.1433, with no short term upward sentiments to be seen. In the current situation, the euro is on the spot, as it refrains from accepting already notable slackening in the region and still expects ECB's upward rate revision. As a result, the currency can eventually face so-called accumulated impact, which may entail much bigger damage. The upward attempts of the euro-to-US dollar rate are limited at the 1.15 handle, while the break of 1.14 is getting more real.

Drilling slowdown in USA may push oil price up
04 February, 2019 15:36

Drilling slowdown in USA may push oil price up

Brent oil prices were on the rise last week posting the strengthening for the fourth week but still failed to break the $63/bbl handle. This level has been scaring off buyers since the beginning of the year. In short run, the market players are likely to keep studying the potential impact of US sanctions on the supply-demand balance, the sentiment of global investors in the stock markets as well as the future dynamics of US oil and petroleum prices. In particular, the $63 handle will be in the spotlight, as its break can lead to further resistance near the $64 handle.

Japanese yen gains grounds in second half of week
31 January, 2019 15:58

Japanese yen gains grounds in second half of week

The Japanese yen is actively getting stronger vs the US dollar. By now the US dollar to yen exchange rate stands at 108.70. The Japanese economic reports are now not in the spotlight now, though some figures should be mentioned. If the industrial sector is ready to recover, this means there are signs of positive improvements of the domestic demand.

Oil price now depends on US-China talks progress
30 January, 2019 13:48

Oil price now depends on US-China talks progress

The oil market showed more clear price trend yesterday. The quotes managed to post some gains in the second half of Tuesday. According to the available statistics, the Brent prices moved up above $61/bbl. The market players mostly believe that the observed strengthening is related to the restrictions that were launched against Venezuela. However, some market analysts think that the hikes should be connected with better market stance towards the risk.

Euro-area economic situation in January 2019: analysis
28 January, 2019 16:19

Euro-area economic situation in January 2019: analysis

The European Statistical Office released the data on the EU trade balance and retail sales of last November in January. Unlike the previous three-month period, the balance showed improvements reaching EUR 19 billion over the period under review, while the October figures were at EUR 14 billion. The November retail sales were 0.6% above the anticipated levels. It becomes clear that the EU economy is in a good state now.

Oil generally survives amid political issues
25 January, 2019 16:22

Oil generally survives amid political issues

At the Thursday trading, Brent oil did not decline but even inched up getting support from the market fundamentals. The quotes were recorded near $60 per bbl and took roots at around $61 per bbl. However, oil prices have slackened today staying at some $61 handle today.