Daily Technical & Fundamental Analysis

Sterling steps out previous range, touching 1.26
11 December, 2018 14:44

Sterling steps out previous range, touching 1.26

Following practically five-week-long slackening, the sterling has managed to break the 1.25 handle (the bottom of April 2017) and moved up to the 1.26 line, which is now believed to be the last frontier on the downward track. Today the currency is said to stabilize slightly standing somewhat above $1.26. However, the Brexit tensions persist, and thus more active buying is unlikely to be seen now, while profit-taking is highly possible.

US dollar moves and Italian budget issue in focus of euro
10 December, 2018 14:59

US dollar moves and Italian budget issue in focus of euro

Following last Friday, the US dollar keeps facing selloffs on Monday. At the end of last week, the situation was entailed by a weak labour market report. For now, the US Dollar index hiked to $96.63. The sterling is unstable in view of the upcoming voting in the UK parliament. However, the currency shows more modest changes unlike the euro, which managed to the November peaks at $1.1440, though then it slightly dipped though remains in the black anyway.

US dollar can get some support from oil
07 December, 2018 15:54

US dollar can get some support from oil

The US dollar is generally uncertain, though the price is fluctuating at the sideline on an upcoming release of the US labour market report. The market expects that the report will dispell recent concerns for the US economy and show the significant strengthening of the employment and salary rates. With this scenario, the greenback will lure demand, though the probable upturn is unlikely to be long-lived. The US dollar can also get some support in its slow upward attempts from the OPEC+ meeting. The markets have fastened their eyes on the OPEC+ talks that are about to finish on Friday.

Uncertainty prevails in oil market on upcoming OPEC+ meeting
06 December, 2018 16:14

Uncertainty prevails in oil market on upcoming OPEC+ meeting

Uncertainties persist in the oil market ahead of the fateful decision of the OPEC+ members regarding a widely discussed reduction of oil production. The market keeps fluctuating in this context, while prices are highly sensitive to different rumours and speculations. Volatility stays strong in the market on Thursday. Following the recent fruitless attempts to take roots above $63-handle, Brent prices plunged to some $60.16 today. It seems that prices are likely to keep sliding further below $60 handle. The rumours that the cartel committee suggested a 1 million bbl reduction as well as agreed on new measures have been rejected, and even before the market has responded to them.

US dollar faces more and more obstacles on upward path
05 December, 2018 16:58

US dollar faces more and more obstacles on upward path

Following the upturn, the US dollar has slowed downs somewhat on Wednesday, and now the trend is unclear, though mostly positive one. There is no notable boost, but the markets show some jitters. This situation can be partly connected with the overestimated results of the Washington-Beijing meeting since the initial state of bliss changed into sceptical mood regarding the success of the achieved agreements during the trade negotiations between the countries. The US dollar can see some support from the Beige Book to be released by the US Federal Reserve in the near term unless the authority shares its concerns about possible economic slowdown.

New US threats against China despite agreed break in conflict
05 December, 2018 14:01

New US threats against China despite agreed break in conflict

US President, Donald Trump is said to threaten Beijing with new import restrictions. The White House backs to its normal political messages, and this even since before the 90-day break period for intensive US-China talks achieved during the G20 summit failed to begin. For reference, it was agreed that the parties take a pause in an interchange of import duties beginning from January 1 2019. Specifically, as the US leader stated in the social network, there will be a real deal or nothing.

Oil weaker on unclear signals
05 December, 2018 12:45

Oil weaker on unclear signals

After a healthy start of the week oil prices failed to maintain recovery on Tuesday. The market is strongly affected by growing uncertainties on the upcoming meeting of the OPEC members along with generally unstable financial markets in the world. As a result, Brent prices hit $63.55/bbl, but then collapsed. As of Wednesday, the bearish trend persists and the 61 handle seems to be the target during the morning trading.

Sterling shows solid upturn
04 December, 2018 13:55

Sterling shows solid upturn

The sterling is on the rise on Tuesday. The bulk of the support is definitely coming from weaker US dollar encouraging sterling to hit new highs. As for the greenback, the American currency is depressed now by lower state-bond yield, which can be a sign of upcoming recession in the USA. Today, the sterling-to-US dollar exchange rate soared above the 1.28 handle for the first time since late November. Additional upturn driver was the message of the advocate general of the European court saying that London can refuse from Brexit on a unilateral basis until the court makes a final determination. However, this scenario is unlikely to happen, but this move bolstered the sterling.

US dollar probably under short-lived pressure
03 December, 2018 18:32

US dollar probably under short-lived pressure

The US dollar has taken a protective position vs the majors at the start of the week. Sales improved mainly driven by the progress in the US-China trade talks that were observed during the G20 summit held in Buenos Aires last week. During the event, the parties managed to agree on a 3-month break, which in its turn gave grounds to expect a possible settlement of this dramatic trade conflict. The additional pressure on the greenback as a protective asset is coming from the agreement achieved by Saudi Arabia and Russia regarding oil production restriction, which in its turn supported demand for high-margin assets including oil.

US-China agreement can fail to happen at G20
30 November, 2018 15:18

US-China agreement can fail to happen at G20

The Argentine capital, Buenos Aires, hosts the G20 summit that begins today. The summit's agenda is unemployment and fair trading issues. Moreover, it is quite possible that the members manage to make the first progress in the WTO reforming. The global economy will focuse on the progress of the conflict between Washington and Beijing. In particular, this will be the first meeting of Donald Trump and Xí Jìnpíng from when Washington picked a trading fight with China.

US dollar keeps leaving behind other currencies
30 November, 2018 14:10

US dollar keeps leaving behind other currencies

US dollar has briefly felt down due to the changed mood of the US Federal Reserve, which was confirmed by the minutes of the recent meeting released yesterday. Lately, Jerome Powell, US Fed Chairman, hinted possible slowdown in the interest rate revision, and other Fed members also stated that the authority could revise the pace of the monetary tightening. However, the US dollar has resumed strengthening today after the short-term selloffs, which supports the integrity of the bullish trend.

Euro sliding further
28 November, 2018 15:02

Euro sliding further

The euro is losing grounds with the current rate against the US dollar reaching $1.1286. Consumer confidence index released by Conference Board on Tuesday weakened to 135.7, though it was well above the voiced forecasts. For reference, the October rate was recorded at 137.9. Under the normal environment, the greenback would slide but not this time. For now, the market will study the second Q3 GDP assessment. The first assessment suggested the increase of 3.5%, while new figures can be 3.6%.