Daily Technical & Fundamental Analysis

Brexit delay prospects fuel sterling pound upturn
27 February, 2019 15:49

Brexit delay prospects fuel sterling pound upturn

Bullish investors are getting more confident as for the sterling pound growth amid the news that UK PM Theresa May may postpone the Brexit from March 29 to a later date. The development will ease uncertainty around the issue as well as concerns that the UK may exit the EU without any agreement in March. Nevertheless, the delay brings the risk that the UK will end up in limbo. Although the pound may keep on increasing amid expectations of the delay, its mid- and long-term prospects are still dimmed.  The US dollar in its turn has been slack lately.

Chinese stock exchanges get bullish on Donald Trump message
26 February, 2019 14:49

Chinese stock exchanges get bullish on Donald Trump message

On Sunday, US President Donald Trump announced he would postpone the increase in import duties on Chinese commodities which was scheduled to come into force on March 1. He cited notable progress in negotiations with China on a number of important issues. These developments supported stock markets in mainland China the most.

US President Donald Trump calls upon oil cartel to slow down
26 February, 2019 14:29

US President Donald Trump calls upon oil cartel to slow down

Oil prices have gained some 35% on the active strengthening over the past few months. Brent oil prices have soared practically to $68/bbl over the past two months. The increase observed over the past two months was driven by the US sanctions against Venezuela which hosts increasing reserves of unsold oil along with tighter measures against Iran. However, the market believes that the key reason behind the upturn was production reduction by OPEC members.

Sterling starts week with consolidation
25 February, 2019 16:43

Sterling starts week with consolidation

The sterling rate has shown quite moderate moves against the US dollar Monday morning. Today the market participants remain focused on the Brexit development, especially given that the deadline for the divorce is getting closer every day. The EU negotiator Michel Barnier believes that there is no sense to reschedule the Brexit date. As he noted, the decision must be made and it is high time that both parties finally to take over the responsibility.

Oil prices temporarily stabilize amid intensive global developments
20 February, 2019 17:20

Oil prices temporarily stabilize amid intensive global developments

Oil prices temporarily stabilized after the last-week surge. The Brent prices stand slightly above $66/bbl at the moment. Some market participants attribute this to a halt in the US-China negotiations while in fact the developments are driven by lower oil output in Saudi Arabia on the accident at its largest offshore field. Oil production and exports may even fall below 9.8 million bbl per day and 6.9 million bbl per day as expects Minister of Energy Khalid al-Falih. In spring, the impact on the production will come from the progress in the US-Iran relationships.

Euro getting stronger but long-run upward potential restrained
20 February, 2019 15:40

Euro getting stronger but long-run upward potential restrained

The euro reportedly restored positions vs the US dollar by Tuesday's end. The currency stands generally firm today with the euro-to-US dollar rate at about $1.1344 in the first half of the day. The greenback was affected by reports about a lower yield of the US state bonds. Moreover, the market also reacted to the message of the US Fed representative, which called economic slowdown and labour market weakening as the most probable scenario for the country. It was also highlighted that the Central Bank could collect all the required data before revising the monetary policy.

Statements by Donald Trump depress euro
19 February, 2019 16:16

Statements by Donald Trump depress euro

After staying above $1.13 handle, the euro has started slackening during the Tuesday trading session. The euro posted a jump against the greenback on Monday amid slow trading during the stock exchange weekend in the USA. However, trading is getting back to normal pace today, and the euro-to-US dollar exchange rate shows a reasonable trend. The negative impact on the euro as well as support for the American currency is coming from the anxious mood at the exchanges regarding the offensive message of the US President Donald Trump towards Europe and Asia.

Short supply reports encourage oil market with prices soaring
18 February, 2019 16:38

Short supply reports encourage oil market with prices soaring

The oil prices finished the previous week at the 3-month peaks, soaring above the $66/bbl handle. In total, the Brent oil quotes gained more than 6.5% over the past week and hit $66.40/bbl for the first time since late November. In the current environment, all the factors speak well for further strengthening of Brent oil. Nevertheless, any negative signs like a return of anti-risk sentiments, can depress already high quotes during the profit taking in the market.

Oil market likely to stay highly volatile
15 February, 2019 17:53

Oil market likely to stay highly volatile

The oil prices have kept improving step-by-step in the second half of the week. The Brent quotes have not only checked the $65 handle but even managed to hit it reaching some $65.14/bbl. As a result, the oil market posts quite positive week especially taking into account insufficient luck for an upward break observed lately. In th short run, persisting optimism may assist Brent prices in taking roots above the $65/bbl handle. However, this scenario can be confirmed only after the break of the 65.50 handle.

Euro touches multi-month bottom on Thursday
14 February, 2019 17:48

Euro touches multi-month bottom on Thursday

The euro to US dollar exchange rate has touched a 3-month bottom on Thursday and even slightly regained positions afterwards. The rate was recorded at $1.1290. At the same time, the US dollar is getting support from increasing yield of 10Y state bonds and steady inflation reports in the USA. The second half of the week is full of economic reports. The USA will release retail sales results for December today. The figures can either improve slightly though may remain weak m-o-m.

Euro-area figures put pressure on euro
13 February, 2019 15:09

Euro-area figures put pressure on euro

A new set of negative reports has hit the euro area by the middle of the week. According to the available data, the regional industrial production dipped by 0.9%, while expectations were voiced at 0.4%. Notably, this downturn has been the major since the global financial crisis. After the 3-month bottom recorded yesterday, the euro still can be depressed by the European economic reports, Brexit and new fears of the global economy state. In the near term, the euro-to-US dollar rate will keep facing negative risks.

Market still expect higher interest rate from ECB in 2019
11 February, 2019 17:51

Market still expect higher interest rate from ECB in 2019

Although the European Central Bank adopted a more flexible approach and the euro-area economy continued posting slower upturn, the market participants keep on believing that the regulator will eventually dare to raise the interest rate until the end of the year. The regional environment is only one of the threats to the euro. At the start of the week, the euro to US dollar rate touched a bottom of 1.13 recorded last time on January 24. Attempts to regain positions are fruitless so far, the market remains bearish...