Daily Technical & Fundamental Analysis

Euro touches multi-month bottom on Thursday
14 February, 2019 17:48

Euro touches multi-month bottom on Thursday

The euro to US dollar exchange rate has touched a 3-month bottom on Thursday and even slightly regained positions afterwards. The rate was recorded at $1.1290. At the same time, the US dollar is getting support from increasing yield of 10Y state bonds and steady inflation reports in the USA. The second half of the week is full of economic reports. The USA will release retail sales results for December today. The figures can either improve slightly though may remain weak m-o-m.

Euro-area figures put pressure on euro
13 February, 2019 15:09

Euro-area figures put pressure on euro

A new set of negative reports has hit the euro area by the middle of the week. According to the available data, the regional industrial production dipped by 0.9%, while expectations were voiced at 0.4%. Notably, this downturn has been the major since the global financial crisis. After the 3-month bottom recorded yesterday, the euro still can be depressed by the European economic reports, Brexit and new fears of the global economy state. In the near term, the euro-to-US dollar rate will keep facing negative risks.

Market still expect higher interest rate from ECB in 2019
11 February, 2019 17:51

Market still expect higher interest rate from ECB in 2019

Although the European Central Bank adopted a more flexible approach and the euro-area economy continued posting slower upturn, the market participants keep on believing that the regulator will eventually dare to raise the interest rate until the end of the year. The regional environment is only one of the threats to the euro. At the start of the week, the euro to US dollar rate touched a bottom of 1.13 recorded last time on January 24. Attempts to regain positions are fruitless so far, the market remains bearish...

US-China trade talks again take centre stage in oil market
11 February, 2019 17:35

US-China trade talks again take centre stage in oil market

Following the Friday trading session, the Brent oil prices managed to slightly regain positions. However, the overall figures showed that the last week brought some 1% decline. The quotes saw some support at the $61/bbl handle and improved to $62/bbl. Despite the increase, the oil market has remained shaky and started this week with a price decline. The current price stays near $61.80/bbl. In the short run, the Brent prices will remain based on the stock markets and macroeconomics. The main event for this week – US-China trade talks. The price still can fall below the $60 handle.

Global economic situation prevents oil price from strengthening
08 February, 2019 16:32

Global economic situation prevents oil price from strengthening

The price for oil showed another attempt to rise on Thursday but entailed new profit taking in the market. As a result, the quotes fell down to the $60/bbl handle. However, the prices for Brent oil have managed to restore positions by Friday, hitting the $61/bbl handle. Despite the increase, daily decline remained heavy. Oil quotes that have already shown instability face pressure from the macroeconomic signals. The market environment generally remained the same with prevailing uncertainties and fears. As a result, traders stay on pins and needles taking measures to prevent the price rise. In the near term, it is still possible that oil prices may fall down below $61/bbl again.

BOE decides to leave interest rate unchanged as market expected
07 February, 2019 18:02

BOE decides to leave interest rate unchanged as market expected

After the regular meeting held on Thursday, the Bank of England, in particular, its Monetary Policy Committee, has reportedly decided to leave the interest rate at 0.75%, which in fact agrees with the market players' forecast. The BOE's decision has fueled the decline of the sterling against the US dollar. For now, the UK can record the slowest economic growth over the past 10 years in 2019.

Euro-area economic figures fail to promote euro uptrend
07 February, 2019 17:56

Euro-area economic figures fail to promote euro uptrend

The euro rate keeps on steadily declining since the beginning of this week. The euro to US dollar rate is hovering around a two-week bottom of 1.1355 and may even touch the 1.13 handle. The rate downturn accelerated on Thursday driven by a new European Commission outlook. The European Commission downgraded its GDP growth forecast for the Eurozone from 1.9% to 1.3%. Notably, the regulator revised its forecasts for almost all countries in the region with Germany and France affected the most. The euro downtrend is hardly a surprise for the market, especially amid the strong US dollar rate.

Sterling fluctuates expecting BOE meeting this week
06 February, 2019 16:11

Sterling fluctuates expecting BOE meeting this week

The sterling is volatile in the middle of the week. The British currency has been plunging lately facing pressure from better US dollar demand and low economic figures in the UK. Specifically, the latter indicates slower economic growth which probably related to the longlasting divorce process. The sterling posted gains on Wednesday, though the downward movement is possible especially in light of the upcoming BOE meeting to take place on Thursday

US Federal Reserve soft position – right or wrong move?
05 February, 2019 16:57

US Federal Reserve soft position – right or wrong move?

Last week was marked by a softer position of the US Federal Reserve towards the monetary policy, which actually supported the stock markets. The US Central Bank changed its strategy dramatically this January against the December meeting. For now, the US Federal Reserve officials stick to somewhat softer policy. In fact, the Central Bank is no longer states about the possible two-fold increase this year. Still, the changes can be made at any time. At the same time, the US Federal Reserve will have no other choice but to resume monetary tightening if the economic situation in the country remains strong.

Euro shies away from slackening euro-area figures
04 February, 2019 18:14

Euro shies away from slackening euro-area figures

The euro has posted some weakening at the start of the week. According to the daily statistics, the euro-to-US dollar exchange rate stands below $1.1450 at some $1.1433, with no short term upward sentiments to be seen. In the current situation, the euro is on the spot, as it refrains from accepting already notable slackening in the region and still expects ECB's upward rate revision. As a result, the currency can eventually face so-called accumulated impact, which may entail much bigger damage. The upward attempts of the euro-to-US dollar rate are limited at the 1.15 handle, while the break of 1.14 is getting more real.

Drilling slowdown in USA may push oil price up
04 February, 2019 15:36

Drilling slowdown in USA may push oil price up

Brent oil prices were on the rise last week posting the strengthening for the fourth week but still failed to break the $63/bbl handle. This level has been scaring off buyers since the beginning of the year. In short run, the market players are likely to keep studying the potential impact of US sanctions on the supply-demand balance, the sentiment of global investors in the stock markets as well as the future dynamics of US oil and petroleum prices. In particular, the $63 handle will be in the spotlight, as its break can lead to further resistance near the $64 handle.

Japanese yen gains grounds in second half of week
31 January, 2019 15:58

Japanese yen gains grounds in second half of week

The Japanese yen is actively getting stronger vs the US dollar. By now the US dollar to yen exchange rate stands at 108.70. The Japanese economic reports are now not in the spotlight now, though some figures should be mentioned. If the industrial sector is ready to recover, this means there are signs of positive improvements of the domestic demand.