Daily Technical & Fundamental Analysis

Euro shies away from slackening euro-area figures
04 February, 2019 18:14

Euro shies away from slackening euro-area figures

The euro has posted some weakening at the start of the week. According to the daily statistics, the euro-to-US dollar exchange rate stands below $1.1450 at some $1.1433, with no short term upward sentiments to be seen. In the current situation, the euro is on the spot, as it refrains from accepting already notable slackening in the region and still expects ECB's upward rate revision. As a result, the currency can eventually face so-called accumulated impact, which may entail much bigger damage. The upward attempts of the euro-to-US dollar rate are limited at the 1.15 handle, while the break of 1.14 is getting more real.

Drilling slowdown in USA may push oil price up
04 February, 2019 15:36

Drilling slowdown in USA may push oil price up

Brent oil prices were on the rise last week posting the strengthening for the fourth week but still failed to break the $63/bbl handle. This level has been scaring off buyers since the beginning of the year. In short run, the market players are likely to keep studying the potential impact of US sanctions on the supply-demand balance, the sentiment of global investors in the stock markets as well as the future dynamics of US oil and petroleum prices. In particular, the $63 handle will be in the spotlight, as its break can lead to further resistance near the $64 handle.

Japanese yen gains grounds in second half of week
31 January, 2019 15:58

Japanese yen gains grounds in second half of week

The Japanese yen is actively getting stronger vs the US dollar. By now the US dollar to yen exchange rate stands at 108.70. The Japanese economic reports are now not in the spotlight now, though some figures should be mentioned. If the industrial sector is ready to recover, this means there are signs of positive improvements of the domestic demand.

Oil price now depends on US-China talks progress
30 January, 2019 13:48

Oil price now depends on US-China talks progress

The oil market showed more clear price trend yesterday. The quotes managed to post some gains in the second half of Tuesday. According to the available statistics, the Brent prices moved up above $61/bbl. The market players mostly believe that the observed strengthening is related to the restrictions that were launched against Venezuela. However, some market analysts think that the hikes should be connected with better market stance towards the risk.

Euro-area economic situation in January 2019: analysis
28 January, 2019 16:19

Euro-area economic situation in January 2019: analysis

The European Statistical Office released the data on the EU trade balance and retail sales of last November in January. Unlike the previous three-month period, the balance showed improvements reaching EUR 19 billion over the period under review, while the October figures were at EUR 14 billion. The November retail sales were 0.6% above the anticipated levels. It becomes clear that the EU economy is in a good state now.

Oil generally survives amid political issues
25 January, 2019 16:22

Oil generally survives amid political issues

At the Thursday trading, Brent oil did not decline but even inched up getting support from the market fundamentals. The quotes were recorded near $60 per bbl and took roots at around $61 per bbl. However, oil prices have slackened today staying at some $61 handle today.

Sterling benefits from fading away hard Brexit scenario
23 January, 2019 17:06

Sterling benefits from fading away hard Brexit scenario

The market is getting more and more confident that the UK may escape a no-deal Brexit scenario. There is a chance that the document will be amended in case of another unsuccessful vote in the Parliament. Speaking about the short term outlook, the British currency can maintain its game face, but the rate will probably depend on the Brexit Plan B vote.

Euro decline restrained, but support line can be tried out this week
22 January, 2019 16:29

Euro decline restrained, but support line can be tried out this week

Following the last-week decline, the euro has resumed weakening in the first half of this week. For now, the euro to US dollar exchange rate already broke the support near the 1.1350-handle. The downward movement is restrained, it can gain pace in the course of the week. According to the recent economic reports from Germany, the major economy of the euro-area is hardly in a good state

Some signs of possible US-China trade war ending
18 January, 2019 17:24

Some signs of possible US-China trade war ending

Steven Mnuchin, US Finance Minister, stands for the lifting of the import some or even all tariffs against the Chinese products. These reports bolstered the US stock market which posted hikes today with the session closed in the black. Moreover, these reports also supported China's stock market as well. Thus there are grounds to believe that the long-lasting trade conflict between two major economies seems to be coming to an end.

Sterling shows good stance by week's end
18 January, 2019 14:21

Sterling shows good stance by week's end

By the end of the week, the sterling has left the 2-month peak at 1.30, which is also considered as the psychological level. However, the sterling was quite dynamic this week despite numerous local risks and no reasons for optimism now. At the same time, a lack of negative Brexit development somewhat supports the sterling, so it faces restrained pressure.

ECB meeting can pass at soft pace
16 January, 2019 18:47

ECB meeting can pass at soft pace

The euro has trimmed almost all last-week gains in the first half of the week. The euro-to-US dollar exchange rate still can be seen at the 1.15-1.13 handle. Moreover, the rate is testing the 1.14 handle now. The short-term outlook is bearish, with no hikes or slumps being expected. Mario Draghi made quite careful and more bearish message yesterday.

Euro loses grounds Tuesday, Brexit vote prospects vague
15 January, 2019 18:13

Euro loses grounds Tuesday, Brexit vote prospects vague

The euro started sliding vs the US dollar in the course of Tuesday. The current rate stands at some 1.1428. In general, such development is more likely market adjustments amid the lack of economic reports. The Brexit vote is the milestone of today's European trading session, which is in the spotlight now. The UK will decide on its further political way today. Some MPs refuse to support the draft agreement, which can mean unexpected results after the vote and even some slowdown in the Brexit.