20 January, 2017 15:00
Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 20 of January
Inauguration day today is a day of mourning for our country. We have elected a president who is a narcissistic, uninformed, lying, erratic buffoon. It will be very hard for serious market players to keep their heads about them when all around are losing theirs, to misquote Kipling.
19 January, 2017 16:00
Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 19 of January
The rise in US yields on the inflation report and Yellen’s comments was a welcome relief from asset prices responding willy-nilly to careless tweets from a jackass. We must admit the market chose to hear only the parts of Yellen’s remarks that reinforced what traders were already feeling—inflation is coming faster than we thought and we need to start pricing in more rates hikes or at least earlier ones.
17 January, 2017 16:00
Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 17 of January
We are never really surprised when the FX market turns against the dollar on the slightest whiff of negativity. Never mind that the banks are in far better shape in the US than in Europe, the UK or Japan. Never mind that the US has the biggest markets and most varied financial products.
17 January, 2017 15:30
Trump intends to put 35% tax on imported cars
The US president clearly stated his position that German automakers may get ready to barrage tariff of 35% on cars that will be imported into the US market. Leading German automakers reacted on such statements with indignation, which already damage the concerns stocks.
16 January, 2017 16:00
Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 16 of January
We are in the calm before the storm. Traders are willing to behave normally as we await events that are sure to set off a ruckus.
First up is the Brexit plan by PM May tomorrow. Then the ECB meets on Jan 19. And the biggie, Trump’s inauguration on Friday, Jan 20.
On the Brexit speech, we doubt we will get a clear picture.
16 January, 2017 15:00
Oil is slowly getting cheaper
Oil prices are slowly falling, but investors hope for further compliance with the OPEC agreement that will support the market. This morning Brent crude oil has been leading the trad at $55 per barrel. North American standard WTI slightly exceeded the level of $52.
13 January, 2017 15:00
Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 13 of January
US politics is so awful that it’s hard not to attribute just about everything—gold is up! Stocks are down!—to Trump and his lies, tweets, and delusions. But we should be careful. The dollar rally actually started back in May as the Fed rate hike was anticipated, then shot down for September, then revived for December.
12 January, 2017 16:00
Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 12 of January
Trump failed to deliver any hard information on economic policy—taxes, deregulation, fiscal stimulus. He did have lawyers define plans to avoid conflict of interest, but also wasted time on that addendum to the security briefing, which turns out to have been about disinformation but not labelled as such.
12 January, 2017 15:00
Dollar is under pressure after yesterday Trump's speech
Yesterday was eventful. The US dollar weakened together with European stocks. Treasuries rose after the disappointment of Trump's speech. Against this backdrop, investors have closed some of their positions, which were before on the background of forecasts for fiscal incentives. Gold rose.
11 January, 2017 16:00
Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 11 of January
The euro hit the high of the year so far on Monday at 1.0627. This fails to matchand-surpass the previous high at 1.0654 from Dec 30, but never mind. A retreat from the Monday high is normal, on either profit-taking or plain old position-paring. We can even image a drop as low as 1.0460 or so before the euro resumes the upmove. Or breaks out to the downside.
10 January, 2017 15:00
Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 10 of January
The currency and fixed income markets respond to the same fundamental factors, including institutional and political factors, but they also influence one another. The drop in yields and the dollar over the past few days is occasioned by the prospect of a hard Brexit and the drop in oil, but of equal or greater importance is both markets having been stuffed to the gills with historically big positions, making them vulnerable to a pullback.
06 January, 2017 15:30
Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 6 of January
The dollar took a tumble because yields took a tumble. China and payrolls contribute, the key driver of the dollar dip was a response to a surprise rally in the bond market that took the 10-year yield to 2.370%, the lowest since Dec 7, from 2.452% the day before or over 8 points. The yield was as low as 2.352% around noon.