Latest Forex News

Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 29 of March
29 March, 2017 15:00

Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 29 of March

We thought we smelled a dollar recovery on the way but thought it would be due to a reaction against the overreaction to Trump’s many failures. We did get some of that, with talk about tax reform bubbling up to the surface. But we must be watching too much cable TV news, with its emphasis on Russia-related scandals and whether there is a cover-up going on.

Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 28 of March
28 March, 2017 16:00

Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 28 of March

We think we smell a whiff of recovery of favorable sentiment toward the Trump reflation trade. The bond gang has yet to get on board so this is probably little more than the usual Tuesday pullback, but you never know. For one thing, the Atlanta Fed may have a Q1 forecast of a lousy 1%, but other reputable forecasters have a lot more—like the New York Fed, which sees 3% in its “Nowcast.”The chart is from the Daily Shot.

Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 27 of March
27 March, 2017 15:00

Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 27 of March

We wrote on Friday “The dollar has a chance to recover from an oversold condition if the market comes to feel that the sell-off was overdone, just as the original build-up had been overdone. A more pragmatic outlook on the Trump reflation trade could be dollarfavorable. This doesn’t take away the weight from an insufficiently hawkish Fed, but it would help. It’s not clear that this is going to happen, though.”

Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 24 of March
24 March, 2017 16:00

Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 24 of March

The dollar has a chance to recover from an oversold condition if the market comes to feel that the sell-off was overdone, just as the original build-up had been overdone. A more pragmatic outlook on the Trump reflation trade could be dollar-favorable. This doesn’t take away the weight from an insufficiently hawkish Fed, but it would help.
It’s not clear that this is going to happen, though.

Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 23 of March
23 March, 2017 16:00

Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 23 of March

Regional Feds talking about the Fed sticking to the plan for three hikes this year failed to impress, showing a lack of respect for the Fed. To add insult to injury, disbelief comes right after the Fed managed to herd the bond market cats into accepting the March hike.

There is no end to the oil falling
23 March, 2017 16:00

There is no end to the oil falling

Growth of oil reserves in the United States dropped the price of oil once again. For the first time this year Brent crude oil quotations have fallen below the psychological level of $50 per barrel. The agreement between OPEC and other major producers to reduce production could not solve the oversupply problem.

Another oil declining
22 March, 2017 15:00

Another oil declining

Oil prices are continuing to fall after yesterday's collapse to the lowest levels since November of the last year. Another collapse in prices was caused by data from the American petroleum Institute, which have reported about new increase of raw materials reserves in the United States.

Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 14 of March
14 March, 2017 16:00

Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 14 of March

So far the Event is the blizzard closing most of the US east Coast, including the government and trading rooms. Trading will be thin, to say the least. This will confuse our effort to determine whether the upsurge in the euro late last week was just an aberration or a genuine breakout. On the side of the aberration theory, the institutional justification is weak.

Oil froze before tomorrow's decline
14 March, 2017 15:00

Oil froze before tomorrow's decline

The North American benchmark WTI with contract in April fell in price by $0.09, and went down to $48.35 per barrel this morning. Yesterday WTI lost almost $0.10, it was the minimum level of standard since 29 Nov. European Brent crude for delivery in may is continuing to trade above $51.30.

Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 10 of March
10 March, 2017 16:00

Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 10 of March

After the high ADP private sector payrolls forecast, expectations of a good number this morning are solid. Bloomberg has 200,000 after 227,000 in January and the critical average hourly earnings up 2.8% y/y. As always, the actual vs. the expected is what will drive the market. It would take a horrible number (100-125,000) to lead traders to think the Fed could get scared off the hike next week.

Insignificant growth of the oil market by the end of the week
10 March, 2017 15:00

Insignificant growth of the oil market by the end of the week

Today, in the second half of the day, the price of the US crude oil rose during the European session. In New York on the commodity exchange, futures for benchmark WTI with delivery in April traded at $49.60 per barrel, slightly increased by 0.69%. European Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange with contract in may rose by 0.5% to $52.50 per barrel.

Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 9 of March
09 March, 2017 15:30

Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 9 of March

While we all celebrate another milestone on the road to normalization—the rate hike now almost certain on March 15—we need to keep a wary eye on a bunch of other things that are less happy.