24 February, 2017 17:00
Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 24 of February
Markets are still responding to the consensus view of “Not March,” even though that is not what the Fed said and there are several Feds hinting as hard as they can that March is a real possibility. The “Not March” idea is considered to be behind the slip-sliding note yield and dollar.
24 February, 2017 15:00
Growth of reserves for 7 consecutive months has reduced the oil prices
In today's early trading, the US oil prices fell after the official data, which were released yesterday, showed an increase of reserves last week. Thus, the growth has been continueing for the seventh week in a row. Cost reduction was not particularly critical, because the increase of stocks amounted to levels that are significantly below expectations.
23 February, 2017 16:00
Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 23 of February
The Fed offered the market a fairly good clue with the next rate hike “fairly soon,” but the market threw it back in the Fed’s face. We say this is bold, for the Fed, but traders wanted a stronger statement of intent. This is silly. The Fed never offers clear intent. It’s always a guessing game.
23 February, 2017 15:00
Temporary growth of oil cheered up the markets
In the middle of the day, oil prices turned up, after the announcement from the American petroleum Institute, which reported about sudden decline of raw materials reserves in the United States. By 9:30 GMT+0, the price for Brent crude rose by 1.5 percent to $56.70 per barrel. WTI also rose in price to $54.40.
22 February, 2017 16:00
Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 22 of February
The big news today will be the release of the last Fed minutes, although experience should teach us the minutes will not deliver a single clue on the timing of the next hike. The market still does not buy the idea of March, although the probability is higher at 43%, according to Bloomberg.
22 February, 2017 15:00
Oil market has remained unchanged
This morning oil on the world market showed a growth, due to optimistic sentiments regarding the effectiveness of the OPEC deal on reducing production. The price for Brent crude oil rose by $0.40 to $56.90 per barrel. Futures on the North American WTI oil rose by $0.30 and were trading at $54.50 per barrel.
17 February, 2017 15:00
Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 17 of February
Really good news on US inflation and other matters, including the Philadelphia manufacturing index jumping to a 33-year high, is being more than offset by political matters. Reuters notes the dollar index is down 6 of the last 8 weeks and “concerns about policy under president Donald Trump [are] quelling hopes of a new rally in the currency.”
16 February, 2017 16:00
Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 16 of February
Once a corrective pullback gets started, and remember this one was delayed, it takes a big gun to stop it. Today’s data plate is skimpy--Jan housing starts and permits, the Feb Philly Fed survey and the usual weekly jobless claims. None of these is a big gun, so we must expect the dollar pullback to persist.
16 February, 2017 15:00
Tranquility in the oil market
Today, during the morning session oil prices have been trading in the usual range of the few last weeks. Investors continue to observe on the reduction of OPEC and other large countries-producers, as well as on increasing of the US oil inventories. Crude oil futures WTI with March delivery rose by $0.05 (0.1%) to $53.13 per barrel.
14 February, 2017 17:26
Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 14 of February
We want specifics from Yellen but the probability of getting any is practically zero. Everyone will be seeking the barest of whispers of a hint that March might be a real possibility or that the market is wrong to say two when the Fed is saying three. At a guess, Yellen will be even more restrained and cautious than usual, if that’s possible, because this time she faces the Senate in Republican control for the first time.
14 February, 2017 15:00
Oil is showing correction
Oil prices at today's trading showed a moderate growth. Main reason for the strengthening of prices is an optimistic data on the OPEC compliance, which are interested in production cuts. By noon, the price for Brent crude was around $56 per barrel, the US benchmark WTI was trading above $53 per barrel.
13 February, 2017 16:00
Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 13 of February
On the data front, the biggie this week is US inflation, which Bloomberg projects at a whopping 2.4% (from below 0.5% percent in Sept 2015). CPI is not what the Fed watches but a data point like that will roil markets. The CPI report is on Wednesday, the first day of Fed chair Yellen testimony (to the Senate finance committee).