11 July, 2017 15:30
Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 11 of July
The US calendar is skimpy, offering mostly the JOLTS report, which could be interesting for the data on voluntary job leavings. Canada reports housing data today ahead of the BoC policy meeting tomorrow. The consensus is for a rate hike, the first in seven years, because of a perceived need to pop a real estate bubble and rein in household debt. Canada does not have general price inflation.
10 July, 2017 17:38
Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 10 of July
The payrolls report is designed to serve a plate of crow to analysts far and wide, including us. But see the chart. It shows wide variability, a couple of months of high payrolls punctuated by the occasional ultra-low bummer. This probably says more about statistics gathering than about the conditions being measured, but never mind. The consensus view after payrolls was that the US would struggle to reach and hold significantly higher 10-year yields.
07 July, 2017 15:30
Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 7 of July
The markets put far too much emphasis on the payrolls report, but it has become a habit and we’re stuck with it. Yesterday ADP threw cold water on the outlook with a private sector estimate of 158,000, Both Reuters (172,000) and Bloomberg (188,000) had higher private sector forecasts, so perhaps the ADP is a warning to lower expectations.
06 July, 2017 15:30
Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 6 of July
The big story today will be the ADP forecast of the private sector component of the jobs report, and jobless claims will be of more interest than usual. May delivered a disappointing 138,000 new jobs. If we get another low number, it will be a dollar-negative—whereas in Europe, the shortage of skilled workers is perceived as a positive.
05 July, 2017 15:30
Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 5 of July
Today the data includes May durables and factory orders, but the biggie will be the Fed minutes. The WSJ reports that “Federal Reserve officials have suggested there is a strong chance they will announce a decision in September to start shrinking the bank’s portfolio of bonds and other assets, while putting off interest rate rises until December.
03 July, 2017 16:00
Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 3 of July
Late Friday the IMF released the most recent data on the composition of reserves, the exact right timing to ensure nobody notices the story. The dollar lost some share of total reserves, to 64.5% from 65.2% at end-December. This is not to say central banks bought fewer dollars—theybought more, from $5.50 trillion in Q4 to $5.71 trillion.
29 June, 2017 15:30
Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 29 of June
The “Draghi Effect” is exaggerated in the FX market. Currencies have moved farther than the differentials would call for. Compare the dollar index on the first page, near the low end of the 52-week range, with the 10-year, closer to the high end of the 52-week range. And see the chart showing the 2-year US vs. German Schatz yield. The German yield is rising, to be sure, but the euro is rising disproportionately more.
27 June, 2017 15:30
Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 27 of June
The single biggest question this week is whether Fed chief Yellen is going to get away with repeating that inflation and inflation expectations are almost irrelevant—the Fed is going to hike again this year on the thesis that full employment means inflation somewhere in the pipeline, even if we can’t see it yet.
26 June, 2017 15:30
Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 26 of June
We get durables today and it could be a negative—Bloomberg forecasts a drop of 0.6%. Tomorrow we get consumer confidence and the Dallas and Chicago Fed surveys. Friday, it’s the University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.
21 June, 2017 15:00
Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 21 of June
Today’s data release in the US is existing home sales for May, following a drop by 2.3% in April. May is forecast at another but lesser drop, -0.4%. Demographics have something to do with it, perhaps. Millennials want to buy and overall, demand is pretty good, but tight supply is keeping prices higher than people will pay.
20 June, 2017 15:00
Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 20 of June
Dudley upset the apple cart yesterday. He went from being a liquidity-worrier that made him somewhat dovish to being a full-bore normalization promoter. If you were ignoring the Fed speeches this week, and there are plenty, you got a comeuppance (we did).
19 June, 2017 15:00
Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 19 of June
It’s a slow data week, with Japan releasing PMI on Thursday and the eurozone on Friday. In the US, we get existing home sales on Wednesday and new homes sales on Friday. We’d mention the current account tomorrow but nobody has paid attention to the current account since the 1980’s.