Latest Forex News

Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 27 of June
27 June, 2017 15:30

Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 27 of June

The single biggest question this week is whether Fed chief Yellen is going to get away with repeating that inflation and inflation expectations are almost irrelevant—the Fed is going to hike again this year on the thesis that full employment means inflation somewhere in the pipeline, even if we can’t see it yet.

Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 26 of June
26 June, 2017 15:30

Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 26 of June

We get durables today and it could be a negative—Bloomberg forecasts a drop of 0.6%. Tomorrow we get consumer confidence and the Dallas and Chicago Fed surveys. Friday, it’s the University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.

Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 21 of June
21 June, 2017 15:00

Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 21 of June

Today’s data release in the US is existing home sales for May, following a drop by 2.3% in April. May is forecast at another but lesser drop, -0.4%. Demographics have something to do with it, perhaps. Millennials want to buy and overall, demand is pretty good, but tight supply is keeping prices higher than people will pay.

Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 20 of June
20 June, 2017 15:00

Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 20 of June

Dudley upset the apple cart yesterday. He went from being a liquidity-worrier that made him somewhat dovish to being a full-bore normalization promoter. If you were ignoring the Fed speeches this week, and there are plenty, you got a comeuppance (we did).

Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 19 of June
19 June, 2017 15:00

Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 19 of June

It’s a slow data week, with Japan releasing PMI on Thursday and the eurozone on Friday. In the US, we get existing home sales on Wednesday and new homes sales on Friday. We’d mention the current account tomorrow but nobody has paid attention to the current account since the 1980’s.

Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 16 of June
16 June, 2017 15:30

Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 16 of June

It’s all too likely that the Fed’s resoluteness will get forgotten in the flurry of upcoming data, including today’s, that will reinforce the slowdown thesis. We might even hear the R word again (recession). The big items today are May housing starts, showing some weakness so far this year, and the University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment. The important component is long-term inflation expectations, running around 2.3-2.4%.

Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 12 of June
12 June, 2017 17:42

Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 12 of June

We are not especially hopeful the dollar maintains its upswing. Not only do we face “sell on the news” on the Fed hike, we are not likely to get great data this week to inspire dreams of high growth, and then there is political uncertainty higher in the US than in Europe (for once).

Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 9 of June
09 June, 2017 15:00

Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 9 of June

The US schedule is nearly empty today. All we get is April wholesale inventories, which is a yawn to most of us but not to the Atlanta Fed, which will revised the GDPNow series today. The other data of interest is from Canada, which reports the May employment data, expected to be fairly robust or at least not a bust.

Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 7 of June
07 June, 2017 15:30

Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 7 of June

We are looking at three Events tomorrow, the ECB policy meeting, the UK election and the Comey testimony. On the ECB decision, some reports have BBK chief Weidmann holding his tongue. Our guess is that when Draghi chooses to allow tapering on the table, he will say so.

Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 6 of June
06 June, 2017 15:00

Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 6 of June

The market is feeling cautious—or scared half to death—ahead of Thursday when we get the ECB meeting and the UK election. Actually, we won’t know the election results until the wee hours the next day, but folks are still worried about a hung Parliament or even a Labour win. One commentator said a Labour win would be really good for the export economy because sterling would crash.

Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 2 of June
02 June, 2017 15:30

Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 2 of June

The market expects job gains at around 185,000, near the 12-month average (186,000)—making the ADP estimate of private sector jobs alone at 253,000 look fairly silly. Besides, unless the number is wide of the expected mark, it doesn’t really matter at this point. It would take a tidal wave to shift the Fed away from the June rate hike. The CME probability for June is 91.2 but for September, 27.0%. We say the Sept is the one to watch. Presumably a low payrolls number will fire up talk of no hike in September and keep downward pressure on note yields.

Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 1 of June
01 June, 2017 15:30

Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc. Analytics | 1 of June

The market used to mostly believe what the Fed had been saying--three hikes this year in March and presumably June and September. The CME probability of June has returned to 88.8% (from 67.6% on May 1). The probability of another one (to 1.25-1.50%) in Sept has retreated to 26.4% from 30.2% a month ago (May 1).