Fundamental Analysis | EURUSD / GBPUSD | 11 of January

Posted 11 January, 2017

On Tuesday, the European currency was unable to continue the upward movement, and after publication of results on the French Industrial Production (2,2% in November), the euro fell by 20 points. Secondary data in the US have released better than expected. NFIB Small Business Optimism in December rose from 98.4 to 105.8. Wholesale Inventories increased from 0.9% to 1.0% in November. The forecast for GDP in the 4th quarter rose to 2.9%.

Today it will be published important data from the UK. Industrial Production is expected growth by 0.8% in November. Manufacturing Production may increase by 0.6% compared to the previous decline by 0.9%. Construction Output is also expected to increase by 0.3%. On the other hand Visible Trade Balance will probably show a decrease from -9.7 bn euro to -11.2 bn euros. At 14:15 GMT+0 BOE Governor Mark Carney will speak. We expect that Carney would say a couple of words about the bold statement of Theresa May and Brexit topic. Then it will be published NIESR GDP Estimate, which are expected to be at 0.5%.

The main news of today is the speech of the new US president Donald Trump. Many investors and journalists want to know further Trump plans without populism of election campaign. Experts predict the familiar thesis, but with mitigation of the common points. Thus, we forecast further growth of the stock market and strengthening of the dollar.

EURUSD pair has practically dropped to 1.0520. We expect further decline of the single currency to 1.0465 and below. GBPUSD took wait and see attitude and is leading its lateral trade around 1.2180. We predict decline of the pound to 1.2050.

Previous forecast

12 January, 2017 10:00

← Fundamental Analysis | EURUSD / GBPUSD | 12 of January

Yesterday there was a press conference of Donald Trump, where he did not say anything new after the already well-known thesis. Trump's speech was in striking emotional statements, namely, he promised to become "the greatest employer in the world." On these words, the stock market increased, but the dollar weakened after the initial reaction from the beginning of the speech.

Fundamental Analysis | EURUSD / GBPUSD | 12 of January

Next forecast

10 January, 2017 15:41

Daily Analysis from EW-Forecast | AUDUSD / USDCAD | 10 of January →

AUDUSD made a nice reversal last month from the 0.7525 level, clearly with an impulsive price move which is an important structure for a bearish trend. As such, we think this trend may continue after a three wave bounce up into wave two which in fact can be now in final stages with current wave C) that may look for a top at 50-61.8% Fibonacci resistance area.

Daily Analysis from EW-Forecast | AUDUSD / USDCAD | 10 of January
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